By: Ceci Alvarez
ARKit is part of the most important platform that Apple created since the app store, and the market opportunity to make augmented reality (AR) mainstream is huge. Apple’s latest public filing makes me more bullish: at a minimum there will be 200 million iPhones and iPads capable of running iOS 11, and with it ARKit, by the end of this year. Once launched anyone using an iPhone 6s and newer can consume AR with just their iPhone. Here’s my model and the raw data I used to calculate ARKit adoption. Consider this open under CC0.
At the end of the day, we care about understanding the number of compatible devices with ARKit because it helps us understand not only our own market potential but also the potential for our developers. If you have suggestions or feedback hit me up — I’m ceci.alvarez@mapbox.com or just ping me on twitter @acalvarez03. Otherwise, feel free to use the model and data as you see fit in your research.
If you want to see the latest apps build with ARKit, read “Bike ride with ARKit” and “Visualizing Foursquare check-ins with Mapbox + ARKit” and “ARKit and Unity Maps SDK: Twin Peaks” all new in the last two weeks. For those new to ARKit, it’s the framework in iOS 11 that lets developers build augmented reality experiences. It uses Visual Inertial Odometry (VIO) — this technology enables iOS to combine camera sensor data with motion data and, as a result, allowing the iPhone or iPad to sense how it moves within space with a high degree of accuracy.
ARKit will radically expedite the adoption of AR, resulting in a win-win situation for Apple and developers. Furthermore, if the goal of AR is to enhance reality — the apps developers build will need amazing maps. Without location, developers won’t be able to ground their scenes in the real world.
So, together, ARKit plus maps, will unlock AR’s full potential. For instance, you can turn your fitness tracking app into map projected on your coffee table. Travel apps will let you see Big Sur coast hovering in front of you as you eat dinner. Teachers can further engage students by projecting the evolution of Pangea in 3D for students to visualize instead of being limited by 2D images in textbooks. And B2B enterprise users will leverage their proprietary data, like tilting up an iPad and see the flood plain as an insurance adjuster appraises property for flood insurance.
So, if I was bullish on my original estimate, I am even more confident this is going to be massive. At a minimum, developers will be able to impress 200 million consumers with their newest AR features built with ARKit and maps. I used Goldman Sachs’ forecast for the number of iPhones and iPads sold in Q2 2017 and they were spot on — within 1% of Apple’s actual sales. Goldman is one of many investment firms closely tracking and forecasting the number of iPhones sold. If these estimates continue to be accurate over the next few months — the market for ARKit will prove its grandiose.
Wall Street’s Q2 forecast for Apple’s iPhones was spot on and what that means for ARKit was originally published in Points of interest on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.