A look at the methodology and why it matters
By: Ceci Alvarez
Yesterday, I shared how there will be 195M ARKit-ready devices by the end of 2017. Here’s a behind the scenes view of how I got that figure and why we care about it at Mapbox.
Our Maps SDK for Unity launched earlier this spring, providing gaming developers with a full stack of location tools — these tools have been described as the new building blocks for AR and VR games. Since our launch, we have seen quick adoption and a number of interesting use cases. Recently, there has been a lot of hype AR/VR including Apple’s announcement of ARKit at its Worldwide Developer Conference (WWDC).
Apple’s ARKit platform is one example of how quickly AR (powered by iOS and Unity) will become mainstream. Public sentiment agrees with this trend, with 70% of consumers believing that AR/VR will become mainstream in media, education, work, social interaction, tourism, and retail.
There are few other companies equipped to capture this interest, from developers and consumers, to build unique experiences. Developers will need real-time data, rendering, location, and context to create the immersive experience that AR/VR requires.
At Mapbox, we are always looking for new markets we can break into. So, when Apple announced their ARKit, we knew that this was a perfect use case for the Maps SDK for Unity — the tool fits in nicely, and complements ARKit’s platform well. Understanding the number of compatible devices with ARKit helps us understand not only our own market potential, but also how you move from a hand full of AR masks to potential mass adoption overnight when iOS 11 fully rolls out.
This data does not exist, in part, because Apple does not publish the breakdown of iPhone & iPads sold by model. One could estimate the number of compatible devices by looking at the number of units shipments; however, I believe using number of units sold is more accurate. Below are the steps I took for my approach:
What iOS models are compatible with ARKit?
To assess the number of eligible devices for ARKit, I first took a look at what iOS devices are compatible with ARKit. Apple’s newest operating system, iOS 11, requires at least an A7 chip. However, ARKit requires an A9 or A10 processor. Therefore, it is no surprise that the models compatible with augmented reality platform lean more towards newer device releases. Below is the list of compatible devices:
Number of iPhones & iPads Sold in 2016 and Projected Sales for 2017
Next, I downloaded Apple’s 2016 10-K report and Q1 2017 10-Q report to find the number of iPhone and iPads sold in 2016 and Q1 2017. Since Apple does not report unit sales by model, I used David Smith’s iOS Version Stats to find the breakdown of iOS models. The data is based on unique daily active users. Therefore, the data is not static — there is a natural, up and down fluctuation caused by the active subset of daily users. This data also reflects usage of one particular app, Audiobooks. As a result, “this data may not apply to your application’s user demographics but should give a good general sense of where users are these days.” That said however, it is safe to assume this variation is minimal and does not affect our bottom-up assessment.
Number of compatible devices for ARKit
Once I had the breakdown of existing iOS devices and units sold, I was able to calculate the number of units sold by model and then add up the number of models compatible with ARKit. In order to find the remaining quarters for 2017, I used the same approach but this time used Goldman Sach’s predictive model for Apple to find the forecasted units sold for Q2, Q3, and Q4.
195M is impressive but conservative — there could, and will be, more
I arrived at 195M iOS devices compatible with ARKit. However, 195M is arguably a conservative number because:
- It assumes the breakdown of iOS devices remains constant through the rest of the year. It does not take into consideration the strong likelihood of older devices and users upgrading to newer releases over the next two quarters. In other words, the breakdown of iOS devices will very likely shift to there being fewer iPhone 5 devices to more iPhone 7 devices, thus, creating an even larger market for ARKit.
- The 195M does not take into account potential users that convert from Android to iOS. The number of customers who went from Android to Apple was up to nearly 17% in 2016 — thus, an additional number of potential ARKit users.
- This number does not include any iPhone 8 sales, expected in September, that will likely come with iOS 11 pre-installed, which will boost compatible devices for ARKit.
I fully encourage anyone to make a copy of the model and see what estimates you arrive at. Feel free to ping me on Twitter or LinkedIn with any questions.
How I determined there will be 195M ARKit devices by the end of 2017 was originally published in Points of Interest on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.